Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
